As of Saturday morning, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian was centered over North Carolina. The storm will drive pockets of rain and gusty winds into New Jersey through the weekend. Although it will not be a "total washout," conditions will be dreary and sloppy for the duration.
In addition to the dismal weather, a serious concern is growing along the Jersey Shore. As Ian's remnant low ejects into the Atlantic Ocean, strong northeasterly winds will push a great deal of ocean water toward the coast. That surge is the driver of both rough surf and coastal flooding.
An additional 1 to 3 feet of water will cause minor to moderate flooding of tidal waterways for several high tide cycles in a row: Sunday, Monday, and possibly Tuesday too. That's enough to flood out vulnerable roadways and low-lying areas, and possibly cause some property damage. This degree of water rise and flooding goes just beyond "the usual spots". The latest tidal models show Monday evening's high tide to be the highest of the storm.
Beaches will be battered by wind, waves, and spray. Ian is far from hurricane strength, as it was when it slammed Florida and then South Carolina earlier this week. But the impacts here are akin to a strong nor'easter (minus any snow/ice, of course).
Although our "Jersey Shore Report" season has technically ended, I will keep the posts coming until the surge, surf, and coastal flooding threats subside. (Hopefully the tide times are especially helpful.) The latest edition of the report appears below, in an abbreviated format.
Be safe, stay dry, and stay warm out there.
—High Risk of Rip Currents for area beaches this weekend, due to increased surf and swell. Stay out of the ocean. —Coastal Flood Advisory for the Jersey Shore from 10 a.m. Saturday to 6 a.m. Monday, calling for several rounds of Minor tidal flooding. —Coastal Flood Watch posted for coastal counties for Monday, as Moderate tidal flooding becomes likely.
Current conditions and forecast as of Sat morning
From the National Weather Service, Mt. Holly
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
TODAY: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. E swell 3 to 8 ft at 7 seconds. Light swells. Rain with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 NM until late afternoon.
TONIGHT: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. NE swell 3 to 6 ft at 6 seconds, becoming SE 3 to 4 ft at 6 seconds after midnight. A chance of tstms in the evening. Rain likely.
SUN: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 9 to 11 ft in the afternoon. NE swell 4 to 9 ft at 6 seconds. Light swells. Rain.
SUN NIGHT: NE winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. NE swell 7 to 12 ft at 8 seconds. Light swells. Rain, mainly in the evening.
MON: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. E swell 6 to 11 ft at 8 seconds. Light swells. A chance of rain.
MON NIGHT: NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. E swell 6 to 10 ft at 9 seconds. Light swells. A chance of rain.
TUE: NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers through the night.
WED: N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming NW 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
Data on this page amalgamated from several sources, including the National Weather Service (weather), National Ocean Service (tides), U.S. Naval Observatory (sun), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (UV index).
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. The Shore Report is generated semi-automatically daily at 5 a.m. from mid-May to late September. Follow Dan's weather blog, Facebook page, and Twitter feed for your latest forecast and realtime weather updates.